On The Money — Preparing for another Fed rate hike

The Federal Reserve (Fed) is planning another big rate hike, which could mark the peak of rate hikes. We also see President Biden targeting oil companies and how the Supreme Court is hiding former President Trump’s tax records from the House of Representatives.

🗳️ However first timecatch up on the five races that determine control of the Senate.

Welcome to On the Money, your bills, bank accounts and all the information that affects your earnings every night. The Hill are Sylvain Lane, Alice Foley and Karl Evers Hillstrom.

Why the Fed’s next big rate hike could be the last

The Federal Reserve plans another big rate hike on Wednesday before slowing its fight against inflation.

• Analysts and economists are confident the Fed will raise the baseline rate range another 0.75 points at the end of Wednesday’s meeting.
• The Fed’s move marks four consecutive rate hikes of what was once considered “abnormally large.”

It could also be a tipping point as pressure mounts for the Fed to take its foot off the economic brakes.

• Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has no plans to announce a moratorium on rate hikes or the Fed’s intentions for its final policy meeting in December.
• But Fedwatchers will be watching closely for signs Fed officials believe may be approaching the levels they plan to set interest rates in the foreseeable future.

“We are seeing enough conditions right now to think the economy is at a true inflection point,” Pantheon Macroeconomics chief economist Ian Shepardson wrote in a research note on Monday.

Sylvain explains here.

pure profit

Biden Seizes High Oil Profits Ahead of Midterm Elections

The Biden administration is grabbing huge earnings reports from oil companies as it seeks to give voters a reaction to relatively high gasoline prices ahead of next week’s midterm elections.

President Biden, who has tried to hold the industry responsible for the high prices, has stepped up his rhetoric in the wake of huge profits, threatening oil giants with a surprise tax on “excess profits.” increase.

• Combined, the seven largest oil and gas companies combined for nearly $70 billion in third-quarter earnings, according to recent earnings reports.
• BP on Tuesday reported a quarterly profit of $8.2 billion after ExxonMobil reported a record $19.7 billion in deliveries last week.
• The companies also announced billion-dollar share buybacks, further infuriating the White House.

“So far, U.S. oil companies have used their profits to buy back their own shares and give the money to shareholders, not consumers,” Biden said.

Karl and Rachel Frazin have more information.

not so early

Supreme Court Chief Justice Roberts Temporarily Hides Trump’s Tax Payment Records From House

The Supreme Court on Tuesday temporarily suspended a House panel’s access to former President Trump’s tax records ahead of their expected release.

The move is in response to an emergency request filed by Trump on Monday and was ordered by Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts, who handles emergencies in the District of Columbia. Roberts said he wanted a response by November 10th.

• The latest development comes after a lower court cleared the way for the House Ways and Means Committee to obtain Trump and his business records from the Treasury Department as part of a lengthy legal battle.
• Federal law requires tax returns to be generally confidential, unless an exception applies. One exception includes a written request by the House Ways and Means Committee. The issue in Trump’s case largely hinges on whether the exception is constitutional.

The Hill’s Jon Cruzel covers it here.

still very many jobs

Job openings rebounded in September after a slump in August

Despite pressure from high inflation and interest rates, U.S. job openings recovered in September after plummeting in August, according to federal data released on Tuesday.

• U.S. businesses posted 10.7 million job openings by the end of September, up from 10.1 million in August, according to the Labor Department’s Jobs and Turnover Rate (JOLTS) report.
• Employment fell from 6.3 million in August to 6.1 million in September, but businesses also laid off fewer employees.

“After the shock of last month’s report, September’s JOLTS data is returning to familiar tales: Labor demand remains strong. All key indicators in this report suggest the labor market is resilient. Yes,” Nick Bunker, head of economic research at Indeed Hiring Lab, wrote in an analysis on Tuesday.

Sylvain breaks it down here.

Useful information

US manufacturing activity fell for the fourth month in a row, and prices paid to manufacturers fell to their lowest level in more than two years.

The Institute for Supply Management’s Purchasing Managers Index for October was 50.2%, 0.7 percentage points lower than in September and the lowest level since May 2020. The figures show that the manufacturing sector is largely flat.

Other items we are looking at:

• A dozen Democrats have asked Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to explain how many Americans will lose their jobs as a result of efforts to mitigate high inflation.
• Elon Musk hinted on Tuesday that he plans to charge Twitter’s subscription service $8 a month and have users authenticate with the platform’s blue check mark as part of the deal.
• One of five Federal Communications Commission (FCC) commissioners has called on Congress to ban TikTok over concerns that user data could end up in the hands of the Chinese government.
• Following the attack on House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-California)’s husband, Paul Pelosi, Capitol Police Chief Tom Munger has said he will do more to keep lawmakers safe because of the controversial political climate. resources are needed.

That’s all for today. Thank you for reading. For the latest news and coverage, visit The Hill’s Finance page. See you tomorrow.