Predict CKD with a model that includes lifestyle and health behavior information

TUESDAY, JANUARY 31, 2023 (HealthDay News) — Self-reported information about lifestyle and health behaviors can predict development of chronic kidney disease (CKD) Clinical Journal of the American Society of Nephrology.

Ariana J. Noel, MD, and colleagues at the University of Ottawa, Canada, developed and validated a survey-based predictive equation for identifying individuals at risk for CKD. Data were obtained from her 22,200 adults with an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) ≥70 mL/min/1.73 m.² A comprehensive general population health survey was completed between 2000 and 2015. Demographics, comorbidities, lifestyle factors, diet, and mood were included in the prediction equation. No model was derived and validated externally on 15,522 participants from the UK Biobank. The primary outcome was new-onset CKD.

The researchers found that 1,981 participants (9%) developed new-onset CKD during a median follow-up of 4.2 years. Lifestyle factors (smoking, alcohol, physical activity) and comorbidities (diabetes, hypertension, cancer) were included in the final model. Models were discriminatory (5-year C-statistics, 83.5 and 81.0, respectively) and well-adjusted with and without baseline eGFR measurements. The 5-year C-statistics were 78.1 and 66.0 with and without baseline eGFR at external validation, respectively, and maintained calibration.

“Our formula shows excellent discrimination and calibration and may serve as a patient-directed tool to improve CKD awareness and education,” the authors wrote.

Several authors revealed financial ties to the biopharmaceutical industry.

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