Dive into America’s New Swing State

Campaign seasons have traditionally brought few surprises to those who evaluate the political map each year. California typically votes Democratic. Places like Alabama usually vote Republican. And the important race is a diverse population, a clear urban-rural divide, a deep legacy of investment by national candidates, and a handful of ‘purple’ battlefields scattered across the country. likely to occur in the state.

At least, that was the tradition.

Today, some state and federal elections in traditionally blue states like New York and Oregon have been virtually wrecked, with Republicans overthrowing years, if not decades, of Democratic dominance. States once ignored in the national discourse like Nevada, Arizona and North Carolina have emerged as some of the most contentious political battlefields in the country over the past 15 years. and often returns single-digit margins in presidential elections and in highly competitive state and national contests. office.

Even Colorado, which has transitioned solidly to the Democratic Party over the past few decades, has seen Republicans advance and become more competitive in what was once considered a pipe dream for the House and Senate.

The real question is whether the shift is built to last.

In Oregon, crime and other wedge problems have exacerbated nationalized concerns about the state of the economy, putting Republicans in positions of success unthinkable just five years ago.

Colorado, which won Democratic President Joe Biden by double digits in 2020, is realistically dominated by moderate Joe O’Dea, who has publicly broken ground with a divisive Republican figure like his predecessor. With the help of the , one Senate seat could convert to the Republican Party this year. Donald Trump.

And in the blue fortresses of the nation, the strongest walls of the Democratic coalition are beginning to crack under the weight of relatively unpopular presidents, troubled economies, and mishaps by Democratic leadership at the state and local levels.

According to Republican leaders, the biggest change has been the rise of independent voters, who appear increasingly willing to alternate between parties based largely on local and regional issues.

In Colorado, more than half of the Republican primary votes were cast by independent voters. Colorado Sun It was reported in a year that Democrats across the country injected hundreds of thousands of dollars into state primaries to promote more extreme brands of Republican candidates who would face a disadvantage against Democrats. That effort ultimately failed, and moderate Republicans (according to party leaders) now have all the momentum.

“Republicans are down a few points on voter registration,” said Colorado Republican Executive Director Joe Jackson. Newsweek“But if we get a very large majority in the independent vote, we win.”

And state by state, the message is consistent. In blue states where abortion is likely to remain legal after being overturned, Law vs Wadecrime and the economy are by and large the dominant issues, not only in their own message, but also among voters.

“When we conduct surveys and talk to voters, they look at inflation, cost of living, crime,” Jackson said. “And, you know, it’s been an easier sell because there’s no doubt who’s been in charge the last few years in Colorado. knows.”

This is a similar challenge in more competitive states like North Carolina, where Republicans and Democrats have regularly traded momentum over the past decade. Justin King, an activist for the Democratic advocacy group Forward Carolina, said he didn’t see the same surge in voter registration as other states after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned the decision. egg But there has been a rise in independent voters in a sign that voters may come to reflect partisan divisions across the country.

Democrats are governors and have a formidable senator candidate, Cheri Beasley, but their party’s momentum has waned in recent months in states where politics traditionally reflect the political sentiment of the public.

“If it’s good night for Republicans at the federal level, they’re going to have good night here,” King said. [Republican U.S. Senate candidate] Ted Budd must win by two points. Maybe more. It just seems to be coming to an end and the waves are breaking. ”

A similar trend is evident in Democratic homelands in the Northeast, where Republicans blame high state tax burdens and liberal policy shifts as sources of voter dissatisfaction.

The Republican Party has seen little recent momentum in New York.

Former gubernatorial candidate Mark Molinaro, who was narrowly defeated in a special election representing a portion of New York’s Hudson Valley in Congress, is right behind Democratic favorite Josh Riley in the race to represent New York’s 19th congressional district. In the 17th District, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Sean Maloney faces a credible threat from Republican strategist Mike Lawrer in the upstate suburbs of New York City.

And in the Democratic-dominated city of Rochester, Laron, the city’s former police chief, rose to prominence in a high-profile clash with disgraced mayor Lovely Warren following the police-involved murder of local man Daniel. A singletary was told to the strategists. Prude could be a potential spoiler candidate in his bid to replace Democratic Rep. Joe Morrell.

“I wanted to go and pick a candidate who didn’t care,” said Mike Sigler, a Republican activist and Tompkins County Rep. Newsweek“And I think we got it this year.”

Topping the list is Republican Rep. Lee Zeldin, a Long Island-based congressman who ran the campaign, fueled by heavy external spending and a campaign message built around fighting crime and inflation. Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul has succeeded disgraced Democrat Andrew Cuomo, who has been in office for 10 years.

Sigler, who served as Republican chairman in New York’s Bluest County and recently wrapped his vintage Volkswagen van in a campaign image of Zeldin, said the energy around Zeldin has been on the rise since Governor George Pataki took office on January 1. He said he was not seen by any Republican candidate. , from 1995 until December 31, 2006 – his momentum was fueled by a simple and consistent message, appearing on television screens statewide almost non-stop that prices were high and crime was getting out of hand. felt.

That message could give Republicans the “in” they need to turn back in New York, and it could bring some balance to what voters, he says, are starting to crave in the state.

“I think Lee Zeldin will win, I feel that way,” he said. “But we as a party need to perform in a week. We can’t just win and say, ‘Great, we’re done here.'” No, win new policies to make New York state better must be enacted. That’s the key. In other words, it has to be realized. ”