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It’s good that Prime Minister Olaf Scholz has finally offered us Ukrainian tanks.Now let’s admit what it took to get there
Good at ducking. Photographer: David Hecker/Getty Images
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Good at ducking. Photographer: David Hecker/Getty Images
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has been busy this week touting a long-delayed agreement for Western countries to deliver German-made tanks to Ukraine as a case study of cautious leadership. This was certainly a welcome step forward in helping Ukraine defeat the Russian aggressor. But the long and difficult negotiations between NATO allies leading up to this breakthrough present a more sober conclusion for the EU and for Germany’s role in him.
As during the Cold War, Europe remains and for the foreseeable future remains utterly dependent on the United States for its security. On the flip side of this reality, lofty ideas about European “autonomy”, such as those of French President Emmanuel Macron, remain fanciful, and therefore distractions are best left in the diplomatic trash can.
The story behind what allowed Scholz to “liberate the leopard” – allowing German-made Leopard 2 tanks to be shipped to Ukraine – is one of transatlantic tension and frustration. Her NATO and her EU member states in the east – Poland and the Baltics – have been pushing these deliveries since last summer. In recent months, the United States has been raising its voice. But Germany hesitated until this week.
The reason, according to Scholz, is not only that a war in Ukraine could escalate into a conflict between Russia and NATO (which no one wants), but also because Germany, in particular, is a Russian Vladimir Because I was afraid that I might be placed at Putin’s crossroads. Scholz was worried that delivering the Leopard 2 might escalate him.
With negotiations progressing, more urgency, and an “operational war” expected to begin in the spring, Scholz made his condition clear. Germany would agree to send the Leopard only if the American also sent his M1 Abrams, a tank.
From a military point of view, it doesn’t make much sense to transport Abrams tanks. They are probably the most complex tanks, requiring not only the longest training, but also the most elaborate supply chain of specialized fuels and parts. faster to ship and deploy. The leopard best fits that description. So the Americans initially said no.
Other allies, who understood the conundrum, tried to move Scholz, even without Abrams in tow. Poland’s populist government, whose election campaign is largely based on anti-German rhetoric, has openly pressured and embarrassed Germany, sending some of its Leopard 2s to Ukraine last week without Berlin’s permission. The British took a more sophisticated approach, promising to commit 14 Challenger 2 tanks. I figured that going first might give Scholz enough support.
None of this was enough to upset the prime minister. As he alluded to in his address to the Bundestag this week, the Poles simply pissed him off. Scholz insisted on keeping the Americans on his side.
US President Joe Biden understood what was at stake. Here’s why the American came out last week for political rather than military reasons, eventually announcing that he would be sending the M1 Abrams tank. It may take months to arrive on the battlefield, but his 31 of them. In private, people at the Pentagon and the White House are plagued by Scholz’s dithering and annoyance. And with that support, Scholz felt ready to release his big cat.
The important thing now is that the tanks actually arrive in Ukraine in time for the spring offensive by the aggressors and defenders. It’s promised, but it applies to Leopard more than anything else.
In total, about 100 Europeans can pitch, from Germany and Poland to Spain, Holland, Finland, and more. But getting them into Ukraine would be a nightmare. Fueling and repairing them is another story, as is using them properly to break through Russian lines.
Macron has been particularly silent in this diplomatic drama. He hinted that France might also send some of the Leclerc tanks, but gave no further details, only last weekend for a grand celebration to mark his 60th anniversary of the Treaty of Elysée. , invited Scholz to the Sorbonne with hundreds of parliamentarians from both countries. It is said to be a pact that sealed their friendship and their joint destiny as a French and German power couple.
That’s all. What Scholz and Biden agreed to this week is good for Ukraine, but it needs more weapons and support after that. Their understanding, however, feeds into all the notion that Germany could move closer to being a “leader” within Europe and become autonomous within the Western Alliance itself, becoming a geopolitical force in its own right. Maybe it’s a good thing we got it straight.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has been busy this week touting a long-delayed agreement for Western countries to deliver German-made tanks to Ukraine as a case study of cautious leadership. This was certainly a welcome step forward in helping Ukraine defeat the Russian aggressor. But the long and difficult negotiations between NATO allies leading up to this breakthrough present a more sober conclusion for the EU and for Germany’s role in him.
As during the Cold War, Europe remains, and for the foreseeable future, utterly dependent on the United States for its security. On the flip side of this reality, lofty ideas about European “autonomy” such as those of French President Emmanuel Macron remain fanciful, and therefore distractions are best left in the diplomatic trash can.
Andreas Cruz Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering European politics. Former editor-in-chief of Handelsblatt Global and writer for The Economist, he is the author of “Hannibal and Me.” @andreaskluth
Disclaimer: First appearance date of this article bloombergand issued by special syndication arrangement.
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