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Emiko Terazono reported in the Financial Times Online on Saturday: plummeting from peak After last year’s Russian attack on Ukraine.
But agricultural experts and analysts warn that the world’s food supply is still under threat.
“The price of groceries is already rising Before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine early last year due to drought and coronavirus pandemic-related hoarding by governments and corporations.
“Then, as a result of Moscow’s position as the world’s largest fertilizer exporter, the nutritional value of crops soared, as did the price of natural gas, an important raw material for nitrogen fertilizers. Increased pressure on agricultural markets.
“Last year’s Black Sea grain trade between Moscow and Kyiv An important role in keeping prices downwith abundant supply from Russia, due to falling natural gas prices Fertilizer market calms down.
“But analysts Grain trade could collapsealso threatens volatile energy prices and climate change impair crop production”
The FT article states:It’s like flying with one engineJohn Buffeth, senior agricultural economist at the World Bank, said: As long as that engine is running, it’s fine, but when it stops, you’re in trouble…in any case [these risks] Materialize, we will see [rise in prices] very, very quickly.”
Mr. Terazono explained: most imminent danger a grain trade supported by the United Nations, Scheduled to be renewed in MarchFailure to extend it will prevent Ukrainian grain exports.Sending prices surge again”
The FT article adds: Record wheat harvest in Russia, bountiful maize and soybean crops in Brazil HaveRelief of tightness The international cereal and vegetable oil markets have increased production of nitrogen crop nutrients due to recent price declines in raw material natural gas. ”
“” we are at an inflection point. input [costs] Margin pressures on farmers appear to have eased significantly,” said Rabobank Grains and Oilseeds Analyst Michael Magdovitz.
And on Friday, Bloomberg writer Agnieszka de Souza said, “After last year’s blistering food inflation,Falling commodity prices from wheat to fertilizer raise hopes for some respite in 2023.
However, multiple risks remain.
A Bloomberg article states: Agricultural commodities and fertilizers remain historically expensivewhile the stockpile of grain remains tight in the same way Abnormal weather According to economists Rob Voss, Joseph Glauber and David Laborde, crop prospects are eroding in places like Argentina and East Africa.
“High costs are also hurting farm profits. Decline in grocery outlookEven if the Black Sea crop export agreement remained in place, they said.
The Bloomberg article said, “Rice prices are one example.persistent food inflationAnd earlier this week, the US special envoy to the UN agency in Rome said the worst food crisis since World War II would end only if Russia withdrew from Ukraine.
“Just because food prices are falling doesn’t mean this crisis is nearing its end,” Ambassador Cindy McCain said in an interview.’we’re seeing some tough times.”
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