Hitter Auction Calculator Awards: Nobody Saw You Comin’ Award

To be eligible for this fully-crafted award, a player must earn a positive value by the end of the season (2022) and have the largest difference between their predicted value and their end-of-season value. Simply put, we subtracted the Earned Value from the Predicted Value and called it the ‘Difference’ and sorted it in descending order. It should be noted upfront that these three of his players were downgraded due to their very low at-bat expectations.

finalist: John Berti, Brendan Donovan, Brandon Drury

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finalist #1: Jon Berti, Predicted: $-27, Earned: $6

PA Forecast Average: 183, 2022 PA: 404

In his 32-year-old season, John Barty had 41 stolen bases. He did it in 404 plate appearances. At least he has the most stolen bases in 400 at-bats, the next four hitters (Jorge Mateo, Cedric Mullins, Tommy Edman and Randy Arrozarena) averaged 620 plate appearances. Berti has snatched the most bags in the majors this season and has done so with far fewer PAs than his rivals. He was only caught stealing five times. Unfortunately, Berti’s value only came from stealing production. 240 (MLB: .243) and .324 OBP (MLB: .312), but his four home runs crushed his batting average. He finished the year with just 47 runs scored and 28 RBI. If you go to the Auction Calculator and sort him by mSB, you’ll see that Jon Berti is first on the list, but his next 16 players all returned higher overall values . In any case, his $33 difference between the amount predicted and the amount won means Berti made a profit if he paid $1, and that’s all, right?

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Finalist #2: Brendan Donovan, Predicted: $-32, Earned: $3

PA Forecast Average: 19, 2022 PA: 468

Check out Donovan’s FanGraphs blogroll You’ll find that much has been written about him in recent months.Eric Longenhagen July 1st ranking Donovan’s put him seventh in the organization, and he really nailed this bit:

“Donovan hits great at bat. He’s hard to follow and even harder to beat in the strike zone.”

Donovan’s profile and Prospect article may preclude him from “no one saw him coming” qualification, but no one sees him promoting him before the 2022 season. Like Berti, Donovan was limited to one category when it came to returning positive values, but it certainly helped fantasy managers playing in the OBP leagues that enrolled him. In 2022 at least he’s among hitters with his PA of 450, Donovan batting . finished behind. He achieved his impressive BB% of 12.8% which is well above his league average of 8.2%. Another Donovan’s great quality in 2022 was his ability to play across the field. Below are his game counts at each position from his player page.

Games played in 2022:

2B: 38 3B: 31 RF: 20 LF: 19 1B: 16 DH: 16 SS: 7

Donovan’s year was a success from a player’s perspective, but it’s hard to see him as a full-fledged lottery fantasy asset in 2023.

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…and the prize is…

Finalist #3: Brandon Drury, Predicted: $-31, Earned: $17

PA Forecast Average: 56, 2022 PA: 568

Drury cooled off somewhat between the first half (133 wRC+) and second half (107 wRC+), but were above average (123 wRC+) by the end of the season.Luke Hooper during trade deadline detailed Drury’s improved batting skills include an increased barrel rate and a career-low swing strike rate. But realistically, Drury eventually found consistent playtime. His 568 at-bats surpassed his career high of 499 in 2016 and blew his 49 PA in 2020 and his 88 PA in 2021 out of the water. But Drury still tapped into his pulling power in 2022, pulling 22 of his 28 home runs over the fence. Still, narrowing down Drury’s output to simply pulling his increased power seems like an easy way to go. 385 on his balls, good for a 237 wRC+, but showed an above-average (.457 SLG) batting .523 on opposite-field batting. Most of it was from his drive line.

Finally, like Donovan, Drury played across the field, giving the fantasy manager flexibility.

Games played in 2022:

3B: 67 1B: 30 2B: 27 DH: 26 SS: 2 RF: 1

In fact, looking at Drury’s 2022 stats, it’s hard to notice any significant drastic change beyond the steady accumulation of PA. Sometimes players get opportunities and make the most of them.

Congratulations to Brandon Drury and the Fantasy Managers who nominated him for a great season. Next week, we’ll look at the overall biggest difference between forecast and earned his value, don’t call me rabbit Award.