Hitter Auction Calculator Prize: Don’t Call Me a Rabbit

To qualify for this fully crafted prize, a player must win a positive value in the stolen base category (mSB) on the Auction Calculator (default settings, Steamer Prediction) and a negative value in all other categories. Must be predicted to win. Second, he had to score positive values ​​in at least three of his four categories (mR, mHR, mRBI, mAVG) outside of SB.

finalist: Bobby Witt Jr., Dalton Bajo, Dansby Swanson

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finalist #1: Bobby Witt Jr., Projected Negatives: mAVG, mHR, mRBI, mR. Acquired positivity: mHR, mRBI, mR, mSB

Surely a lot will be written about Bobby Witt Jr.’s rookie season in this offseason fantasy realm. It was probably low. It was clear he would do well. But did you think he would end up as the 5th best third baseman by auction value earned? . His 15-game rolling without a baserun looking at any of his charts shows the 22-year-old rookie has a lot of potential but never set the world on fire in his first game. It tells the story of what might have happened. Year. it happens.

Wit exceeded all predictions in the Lotto category, except batting average. He was expected to hit .257 and hit .254. Not bad, steamer predictions. In 2021, compared to his AAA stats, his line drive rate decreased and his grounder rate increased. He also hit fewer home runs fly balls than he did in AAA. But he showed in his 92nd his Statcast percentile maxEV that he has the ability to totally suck the ball like a 22-year-old. However, he struggled in his four-seamer in the majors, with a run value of -7 in the statcast and in the wFA he was the 23rd worst (among eligible hitters) with a pitch stat of -2.6 p. -val recorded. But Witt tallied his 632 plate appearances in his rookie season (his second only to Stephen Kwan), and the experience must be worth his few extra bucks heading into 2023.

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Finalist #2: Daulton Varsho, Predictive negative: mAVG, mHR, mRBI, mR. Acquired positivity: mHR, mRBI, mR, mSB

One thing to keep in mind is that Varsho’s predictive value increased because he qualifies as a catcher. Due to his positional rarity, he gets a higher value. However, Varsho is a catcher-qualified player who is expected to get on base, and he did not disappoint by recording his career-high (MLB) 16 stolen bases. He also put together a nearly full season of his 592 plate appearances in 151 games. He’s been a staple this season, and everything but his batting average (.234) showed it.

However, these lottery value increases don’t seem to be accompanied by much of the underlying Statcast data.

He caught 31 games in 2022, so league rules will determine if he’s eligible to catch again in 2023. The 2022 catcher position can play well with any fantasy his team, under any league parameters. For a player who’s only played at his level in the major leagues for about a year and a half, it’s exciting to see the predictions for 2023.

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…and the prize is…

Finalist #3: Dansby Swanson, Projected negative values: mAVG, mHR, mRBI, mR. Acquired positivity: mHR, mRBI, mR, mSB, mAVG

As Swanson heads into free agency this offseason, his 2022 totals show he was going to make a statement. , had the most runs scored, hit the most runs batted in, and stole the most bases. He also put out his lowest BB%, but this didn’t help those who enrolled him in his OBP league. His K% has been trending up over the last three seasons, but his home run totals, FB% and his SwStr% have also been trending up.

Is he selling out for power? perhaps. However, he also beat the .245 batting forecast (Steamer) by more than 20 points (.277) for him, and his league average for the 2022 majors was .

Don’t call him a rabbit, but he ran and stole a career-high 18 sacks. But he was given this award not because he stole a base, but because he did everything else.

Congratulations to Dansby Swanson and the Fantasy Managers who nominated him for a great season. Next week I will begin handing out these highly coveted awards to pitchers.