[ad_1]
Nantu Banerjee
Global investment banker Morgan Stanley may have predicted the current decade as India’s next Chinese economic slowdown.
However, the Indian economy is not growing as fast as it should.Large foreign direct investment (FDI) in India
A very price sensitive economy. The complexity of an uncertain and volatile regulatory environment continues to be a problem.
Potentially, India could become the world’s factory. However, the government has not taken sufficient measures regarding ease of use.
work. Acquisition of land with clear titles to build large manufacturing ventures continues to pose problems.energy cost
And shipping is expensive. In many states, contractors have to deal with the local political mafia.FDI into manufacturing
Despite its recent rise, the world’s fastest growing large economy has yet to attract many large multi-billion dollar investment offers from large corporations.
Multinational corporations make the country a global manufacturing hub.Global investment banker report
India’s near-term economic future is a little too optimistic.
Morgan Stanley’s latest message to CEOs and CIOs: ‘New India’ will account for one-fifth of global growth
end of this decade. These factors are: 1) Our (Morgan Stanley) multipolar worldview and the rise of India in the world
economy, 2) India’s commitment to the Paris Agreement (45% reduction in GDP emissions intensity from 2005 by 2030);
level), 3) major investments in terms of both dollars and institutional infrastructure to leverage the Indian biometric system,
Aadhaar, and 4) Government policies aimed at increasing profit as a share of GDP have a positive effect on investment.
Consumer discretionary spending is gaining a share of total consumption as per capita GDP surpasses a significant US$2,000.
mark. India’s income pyramid offers a unique breadth of consumption in our view.
Show the world the attractiveness of India as an office.
New developments such as the trends outlined in Morgan Stanley’s Multipolar World Theory, along with government incentives
– It is also enabling India to gain traction as a factory to the world.
A significant increase in foreign direct investment and private domestic investment…. Her per capita energy consumption in India is
Our estimates show a 60% rise to about 1450 watts per day over the next decade, providing two-thirds of the incremental supply.
Comes from renewable resources. We believe this will 1) have a positive impact on India’s terms of trade and 2) about three-quarters of the year.
3) Eventually headline inflation will become less volatile as the share of imported energy in GDP declines 4)
Lowering fertilizer subsidies, 5) improving living conditions, 6) creating new demand for solutions such as electric vehicles, cold climates, etc.
Storage chains, eco-friendly hydrogen-powered trucks and buses.
India’s top end spends like the richest in the world, but the bottom end is still relatively poor.number of households
Revenues in excess of US$35,000 per year could triple over the next 10 years to over 25 million. 1) GDP
Likely to more than double to over US$7.5 trillion by 2031, 2) discretionary consumption boom, 3) 11
An annual compounding rate that will drive the market cap to $10 trillion over the next 10 years. Morgan Stanley’s message states:
Risks to our views include a prolonged or slowing global recession, adverse geopolitical developments, domestic political and
Misguided policies, shortages of skilled labor, skyrocketing energy and commodity prices.
It may not be wrong to note that Morgan Stanley’s optimism for India’s economic growth is not quite in line with the report.
Observations of international institutions such as the World Bank, UNCTAD, and Global Macro Models in Trading Economics.of
Global investment bankers also appear to be wrong in their calculations and projections of India’s GDP. According to the World Bank,
India’s GDP in 2021 was worth US$3,173 billion. Interestingly, Trading Economics Global Micro Models and Analysts
India’s GDP is projected to ‘reach about $3000.00 billion in 2023 and $3450.00 in 2024’.Forecasts vary
India’s GDP growth. While the IMF has cut India’s growth forecast for 2022-23 to 6.8%, UNCTAD, the top UN agency, said:
India’s economic growth is expected to slow to 5.7% in 2022.expect
GDP growth will slow further to 4.7% in 2023. The global economy is expected to grow 2.6 times hers, according to UNCTAD’s annual report
In fact, it may be too early to celebrate India’s economic success over the past decade.
Last month, the World Bank lowered its 2022-2023 real gross domestic product growth forecast to 6.5%.
Earlier estimate of 7.5%, while warning of spillovers from Russia’s aggression in Ukraine and global monetary tightening
weighs on the economic outlook. The World Bank, in its biannual report on South Asia, states:
Restrained by heightened uncertainty and rising funding costs. India’s Reserve Bank has also recently curbed economic growth
Prolonged geopolitical tensions and
Aggressive monetary tightening globally.Morgan Stanley clearly leads the pack in predicting India’s economic growth
Calculation of outlook and national income. The Indian economy is currently grappling with sustained high levels of inflation,
unemployment. Inflation has been above the RBI’s upper bound since the beginning of the year,
Increased imports and depreciation of the rupee should increase the trade deficit.
Year.
But the most positive aspect is that the Indian economy is unlikely to face a demand recession anytime soon.
The US and Eurozone are headed for recession. The Indian economy is not well connected to the global economy. And it should be noted that
Domestic inflation has not reduced consumer demand for anything from cars, housing to wage goods.going up in reverse
Vehicle prices and high petrol and diesel costs will have little impact on Indian car demand.The country is expected to become the best in the world.
Third largest automotive market in terms of volume by 2030. Currently, the automotive industry accounts for he 7.1% of India’s GDP.
Manufacturing accounts for 49% of GDP. The EV market is expected to grow at his CAGR of 49% between 2022 and 2030,
Annual sales are expected to reach 10 million units by 2030.
physical infrastructure.Center governments and states need to work hard to attract large foreign direct investors to invest
Advantages of the situation to grow together.
(IPA service)
[ad_2]
Source link