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No backlog in California ports
The Wall Street Journal reports that Southern California’s infamous container ship backup has ended
Key stats
- Queues of ships waiting to be unloaded at ports in Los Angeles and Long Beach have dropped to just four this week from a peak of 109 in January.
- Container imports into the U.S. fell 11% in September from a year earlier and 12.4% from August, according to Descartes Datamin, a data analytics group owned by supply chain software firm Descartes Systems Group.
- According to Sea-Intelligence, shipping companies have canceled between 26% and 31% of transpacific voyages in the coming weeks.
- In September 2021, the average cost of shipping containers from Asia to the US West Coast exceeded $20,000. Last week, the average cost to ship a container from Asia to the US West Coast dropped 84% year-over-year to $2,720.
extraordinary progress
September 2022 and September of the previous year
- 2022 vs. 2021: -26.6%
- 2022 vs. 2020: -27.2%
- 2022 vs. 2019: -14.6%
- 2022 vs. 2018: -17.1%
- 2022 vs. 2017: -11.6%
The last positive comparison to other years was September 2009, coming out of the Great Recession.
Truck shipping charges are barely plus
Arrival of the Great Purge
Shipping fee
aerial reconnaissance
Amazing photo!
how about the train?
Keep those rate hikes going!
question of the day
Q: Are we in recession?
A: That question is out of the question.
Not only is Fed policy lagging behind, but the Fed appears committed to keeping rates high for the foreseeable future. Sooner or later it doesn’t matter.
GDPNow Creator Pat Higgins Discusses Surge in GDP Forecasts for October
Atlanta Fed GDPNow data, Mish chart
scroll to continue
I bookmarked a recession that started in May, but if GDPNow is nearly accurate, the US has avoided a recession until Q3.
For a discussion, see GDPNow author Pat Higgins’ October surge in GDP forecasts.
Focus on Current Real Final Sales (RFS) Estimates – Oct 14
- Base GDP estimate: 2.8% (above chart)
- Total RFS: 2.9% (above chart)
- RFS Domestic: +0.6% (report details)
- RFS Private Domestic: +0.2% (report details)
collapse of imports
This is the collapse of imports and the improvement of the trade balance that caused the GDPNow model to surge.
The import collapse is certainly consistent with Craig Fuller’s data and analysis.
How much the model overreacted or underreacted to an improvement in the trade balance remains to be seen.
Call it a recession or not, expect a long period of low growth
Back to my post of 19 Aug 2022 Call it a recession or not, we expect a prolonged period of low growth
Lost in the debate about whether a recession has started is the view that it doesn’t really matter in either case.
The housing crash is the key to understanding this recession
Housing brings recessions and revivals, and house prices stay low for a long time.
Add all of this up and it’s the exact opposite of a Covid-recession, a prolonged economic slump with a minimal rise in unemployment.
It doesn’t matter if you call this a recession. Besides, the NBER may not even announce a recession until it’s over. It already happened once.
The Federal Reserve is about to overshoot. Fear that inflation will worsen again prevents them from reacting aggressively.
Of the 22 million baby boomers, the millions who continue to work over the age of 60 will retire. This will prevent the massive rise in unemployment that many expect.
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Misch
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