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November 11, 2022 • 5:45 PM ET
The goal of keeping global warming below 1.5 degrees is effectively dead. Why is per capita emissions important?
As the world continues to warm and the frequency of natural disasters increases (Figure 1), government officials and leaders of the private and public sectors are mobilizing for the 27th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Meet at the Sharm El Sheikh Resort. Commonly known as COP27, the conference will bring participants together to discuss climate issues facing the global community and economies. At COP27, global warming, extreme weather and drought are at the forefront, and he needs to be especially vigilant at a time when nearly a billion people around the world face hunger and food insecurity.
But reaching the goal of limiting global warming to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century, and hopefully below 1.5°C, seems more unattainable than ever. The reason is simple. Adopted by 196 Parties at COP21 in Paris on December 12, 2015, the goal calls for reducing global greenhouse gas emissions as quickly as possible. Nevertheless, as can be seen in Figure 2, the world’s CO2 emissions, the most important of the greenhouse gases, have increased continuously over the past decade (pandemic shutdowns and global economic excluding 2020 as a result of lower activity).
CO2 emissions are expected to increase further in 2022 and for the foreseeable future. The increase was largely due to a strong recovery in coal after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The ensuing financial and energy war between Russia and the Group of Seven (G7) led to global oil and gas shortages, forcing many economies to turn to coal. Coal, which is mainly used in the power generation and industrial sectors, emits twice as much CO2 as burning natural gas, further lowering the world from the 1.5 degree Celsius target by 2100. According to the United Nations Environment Program, global temperatures are already rising. 1.1 degrees Celsius warmer than before the industrial revolution. If business continues as usual and global emissions are not significantly reduced, levels will rise by more than 3 degrees Celsius by 2100. The world’s largest emitters must take meaningful steps to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. Economies that bear the brunt of the effects of global warming, such as the Small Island Developing States, which contribute minimally to global greenhouse gas emissions, should expect little or nothing.
As can be seen in Figure 3, China, which accounts for over 31% of global CO2 emissions, is the world’s largest CO2 emitter, followed by the United States and India at 14% and 7.2%, respectively.
Clearly, reducing the emissions of the world’s largest CO2 emitter could have huge benefits in reducing global warming. However, it is important to put these numbers in perspective to achieve the most effective and efficient global outcomes. China is by far her largest CO2 emitter in the world, but on a per capita basis, her 27 countries in the world had more her CO2 emissions than China in 2019. As shown in Figure 4, 21 of these countries accounted for 30% of her CO2 emissions globally as high-income countries, and four of the G7 (Canada, the United States, Japan and Germany). Specifically, per capita CO2 emissions in Canada (15.4 tonnes per person) and the United States (14.7 tonnes per person) were about double that of China at 7.6 tonnes. China, on the other hand, accounts for 28.7% of global manufacturing, much more energy intensive than services and agriculture, compared to 16.8% in the US, 7.5% in Japan and 5.3% in Germany (Figure 5). . As part of manufacturing, China produces 70% and 40% of the world’s solar panels and wind turbines respectively. In other words, even though China is the world’s largest factory producer for global markets, including the global renewable energy industry, the other 27 economies participating in COP27 have less her per capita. has higher CO2 emissions than China.
This does not mean that China, the world’s largest emitter of CO2, has played a less important role in reducing global greenhouse gas emissions. Not at all. But it certainly means that most high-income developed countries, especially the United States, must play a more significant and active role in this regard. There are three main reasons for this. First, as can be seen in Figure 6, his CO2 emissions per capita in high-income economies are on average 1.5 times, 5.5 times, and 33 times more. , Respectively. Second, from a budgetary and technological perspective, high-income countries have more resources to reduce greenhouse gas emissions without significant impacts on economic health. Most other economies, especially those in the lower-middle and low-income categories, simply do not have the economic capacity to reduce emissions. Third, a significant portion of her CO2 emissions in high-income countries are ‘luxury emissions’, whereas in poor countries they are mainly ‘subsistence emissions’. The share of global emissions of the world’s richest 1% (who mostly live in high-income countries) is projected to reach 16% of global emissions by 2030 (up from 13% in 1990 to to 15% of the total). Plus, the world’s richest 10% of people account for her third of global emissions. Achieving global climate justice means reversing growing inequalities in global emissions. If increasing emissions from poor economies is not an option, which it certainly isn’t, the only way left to achieve climate justice is to cut emissions for the world’s richer populations. That’s it.
In conclusion, high-income countries account for over 35% of global CO2 emissions, but only 12% of the world’s population. Their CO2 emissions are having a negative impact on the lives of the world’s most vulnerable and poor people. The majority live in lower middle and low income countries. The 1.5 degree Celsius target has virtually disappeared and the Paris Agreement is no longer binding. The good news is that her CO2 emissions per capita in most high-income economies have declined over the past decade. For the US and Germany, for example, he is down 16%. Need to do levels etc faster. A strong recovery in coal has provided a strong headwind to this trend, and could be a headwind for some of these economies. COP27 should pave the way for a new international collaborative and enforceable framework to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions, both in absolute and per capita terms, by the world’s top emitters. Unfortunately, the current geopolitical and geopolitical competition and rivalry between the world’s largest economies does not help in this regard, but we can only hope.
Amin Mohseni-Cheraghlou is a macroeconomist at the GeoEconomics Center and leads the Atlantic Council’s Bretton Woods 2.0 project. He is also an Assistant Professor of Economics at the American University in Washington DC. @AmoseniC
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