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After months of higher-than-expected inflation, it’s nice to finally see the latest report come out lower than expected. The market certainly appeared to welcome the latest inflation report, with stocks soaring early on Thursday with substantial gains.
Inflation for the year ending October was 7.7%, the Labor Department said Thursday. The previous month’s annual inflation rate was 8.2%, and recent projections have him pegged to 7.9% for October. Overall consumer prices increased by 0.4% from September to October. This monthly rate was also below the forecast rate of about 0.6%.
The latest report suggests that inflation has fallen, but many prices for consumers remain stubbornly high. Gasoline prices, for example, have risen 17.5% compared to October last year, while food prices have risen 12.4%.
“This morning’s CPI [Consumer Price Index] Dallas Federal Reserve Governor Rory Logan said in his Thursday morning speech that the data was a welcome relief, but there is still a long way to go.
The Federal Reserve, the U.S. central banking system, has acted aggressively to keep inflation in check in 2022 despite the risk of pushing the entire economy into recession. He has raised rates six times so far, suggesting more are on the horizon until inflation drops to his Fed’s preferred rate of around 2%.
Is the latest inflation report good news or bad news?
Economists generally interpret Thursday’s inflation report as a good sign.
Wendy Edelberg, a senior fellow in economic research at the Brookings Institution, said during a panel discussion on Thursday that she was “cautiously optimistic” but hadn’t celebrated yet.
“I didn’t see any bad news,” said Edelberg. “This is the bare minimum needed to control inflation.”
Some economists are more optimistic. During the same panel discussion, Justin Wolfers, an economics professor at the University of Michigan, said he was so excited to see the report that he went running.
So is inflation rising or falling?
Inflation has definitely come down, with October’s annual and monthly inflation rates both below expectations.
But the reality of historically high prices still weighs heavily on wallets across the country. Thursday’s report could be interpreted as good news for the longer-term inflation trajectory, but daily prices are still rising for consumers, albeit at a slower pace than the previous month.
“Inflation is heading in the right direction and we are seeing a moderation in inflation across the board,” Karrie Cox, an analyst at investment firm eToro, said in a note to Money.
“Don’t get me wrong, inflation is still too high for the Fed’s liking, but this is progress,” Cox added.
What does the new inflation report mean for stocks?
Stocks surged Thursday morning as investors appreciated a more favorable CPI report than economists had expected and what that could mean for upcoming rate hikes.
Rate hikes are a tool used by the Federal Reserve to keep inflation in check, but they can also affect stock prices as they make it more expensive for companies to borrow and do business. Last week, the central bank hinted that it plans to continue raising rates, but that it may be ready to slow down depending on economic conditions.
Thursday’s CPI report showed the Fed could deliver a 50 basis point hike in December, said Gargi Chaudhuri, head of iShares investment strategy for the Americas at BlackRock, which said Money said in a written comment shared with (His four recent rate hikes are 75 basis points.)
eToro’s Cox said the latest report showed “progress” but said the market could not expect a significant rally until inflation dropped significantly.
Equities have been volatile for much of this year as interest rates continue to rise, and experts say investors should brace for more ups and downs.
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